A recent face-to-face nationwide poll on Nigeria’s 2023 presidential elections shows Labour Party (LP) leading the voters’ preference at 37 percent of the survey respondents. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP) secured 27 percent of the survey responses, while the All Progressives Congress (APC) secured 24 percent, with the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) at 6 percent.
NexTier, an Africa-focused consulting firm, conducted its second presidential poll on Friday,
January 27, 2023, four weeks before the scheduled presidential elections.
The team used a sample size of 3,000 respondents and generated a margin of error of two percent at a 95 percent confidence interval. The survey sample represented the age and gender demographics in
Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
Although Labour Party secured the highest voter preference, it is unlikely to secure an outright
first-round victory.
The poll said none of the presidential candidates met both criteria for victory in the first
round: a majority of votes cast and 25 percent in two-thirds of the states. The survey results
show that Labour Party can achieve 25 percent of the votes in 23 states. Therefore, the
presidential election could head to a runoff between Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar or Bola
Tinubu.
“Most registered voters (72 percent) have decided on their preferred party. This result is
consistent across rural and urban voters. Similarly, the survey data demonstrates that respondents are certain in their choices.
“Eighty-three percent of the respondents indicated
that nothing would make them change their preferred party before the elections. It is important to note that the survey questionnaire showed the party logos and names instead of the candidates’ names or images.
“Voter turnout in the 2023 presidential election could be significantly higher than in 2019.
“For instance, 77 percent of respondents indicated that they ‘will vote’ in this election, while 63
percent stated that they “will definitely vote.
”This level of commitment was consistent across all ages and gender demographics in rural and urban communities.”
The consulting firm said despite the voter commitment, turnout could be depressed by a combination of factors:
insecurity, concerns about the freedom and fairness of the election, and concerns about the
impartiality of Nigeria’s Independent Na,onal Electoral Commission (INEC).
Acxordingly, only 52 percent of
the respondents trust that the elections will be free and fair. Only 47 percent of respondents
trust that INEC will not manipulate the results.
Radio (33 percent) and WhatsApp/social media (29 percent) should be the key communica,on
channels for political parties ahead of the election day. About 16 percent of respondents said
they get information on the candidates and the political parties from their families and friends.
The same percentage get their information from television. Only 2 percent get their information from their religious leaders, while one percent get theirs from traditional leaders.
The poll said there are slight variations between urban and rural voters.
Nextier Founding Partner, Patrick O. Okigbo III, stated that the presidential election is shaping
to be one of the most keenly contested races in recent decades. “It is exciting to see Nigerians
take their civic responsibilities seriously.”
He confirmed that, in addition to the two national
polls, Nextier would continue to provide data analysis and insights on Nigeria’s elections and
other development issues.
In summary, although the Labour Party secured the highest voter preference, Nigeria’s 2023
presidential elections will likely go into a second-round runoff with Peter Obi and one of either Atiku Abubakar or Bola Tinubu..
